IMD Predicts Above-Normal Monsoon Rainfall for India in 2025
A criterion rainfall is expected by IMD with favorable climatic conditions, ensuring agriculture and the economy flourish.
New Delhi, The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that above-normal monsoon rainfall is likely throughout the country this year. The department expects total rainfall during the June-to-September monsoon season to be around 105% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error margin of ± 5%. This prediction suggests that India would receive a little above-normal rainfall, which will have a highly positive bearing on agriculture, the economy, and rural livelihood.
The IMD forecasted above-normal monsoon rainfall at a critical time when weather conditions in North India are unpredictable. The department’s short-term forecast states that thunderstorms and thunder are expected from April 18 to April 20 over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, and parts of western Uttar Pradesh.
Climate Indicators in Neutral Zone
The IMD experts have indicated that all major climate influencers, including El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), exist in a neutral condition. This is considered to be a perfect time for the development of a decent monsoon. The absence of hindrance from phenomena like a strong El Niño or a strong negative IOD means that the monsoon has better chances of staying stable and friendly.
El Niño warms surface waters in the Pacific Ocean and is notorious for depressing monsoon activity in India; the result is often drought-like conditions. Though little known, the Indian Ocean Dipole is equally important in affecting rainfall distribution by contrasting sea surface temperatures across the Indian Ocean. In general, the summer monsoon rainfall tends to be positively correlated with neutral-positive IOD patterns.
The other promising phenomenon observed this year is the reduction of snow cover over the Eurasian landmass and Himalayan region Past experience goes on to indicate that any snow cover present even over the aforementioned areas has basically interfered with more widespread monsoon activity across the subcontinent of India.
Expected State Variations
While largely auspicious, the IMD warns that some regions may not benefit equally. Below-normal rainfall is expected in places like Ladakh, the Northeast states, and eastern Tamil Nadu. However, the common consensus is expected to be a sufficient to above-average rainfall for most parts of the country
The southwest monsoon is an important event for Indian agriculture, as almost half of its farmland relies on it for irrigation; it usually breaks over Kerala around June 1 and is withdrawn by the middle of September.
Economic Implications
For the Indian economy, particularly rural areas, an above-normal monsoon is deemed a blessing. This favors crop yields, ensures less dependence on groundwater and irrigation infrastructure, keeps food prices stable, and thus contains inflation. Strong monsoon showers lead to increased rural consumption, which in turn favors sectors such as FMCG, automotive, and agriculture-based industries.
Ministry of Earth Sciences officials are confident that the predictions for rainfall will act as a support for the revival of agricultural sectors, especially where erratic weather affected these areas in the previous years.
To summarize, with the atmospheric and oceanic parameters set in favor, the 2025 monsoon season seems promising for India. If forecasts come true, this season may provide farmers with much-needed relief and act as a tailwind for the economy.
Also read :-
Indira IVF Hospital Limited Expands Presence in Hyderabad with Gacchibowli Centre
0 Comments
Leave a Comment